WEBVTT 00:00:01.575 --> 00:00:04.380 align:middle line:84% The "mini" Budget was really the culmination 00:00:04.380 --> 00:00:06.780 align:middle line:84% of the economic policies that have been put 00:00:06.780 --> 00:00:09.270 align:middle line:90% in place since the Brexit vote. 00:00:09.270 --> 00:00:11.760 align:middle line:84% A very particular idea of sovereignty 00:00:11.760 --> 00:00:14.330 align:middle line:90% over economic good sense. 00:00:14.330 --> 00:00:16.947 align:middle line:84% We couldn't ship anything to the EU, nothing. 00:00:16.947 --> 00:00:19.542 align:middle line:90% It's bordering on disastrous. 00:00:19.542 --> 00:00:24.080 align:middle line:84% The Brexiteers haven't really formulated a cogent case 00:00:24.080 --> 00:00:27.252 align:middle line:84% as to why Brexit is going to deliver a dividend. 00:00:27.252 --> 00:00:29.060 align:middle line:84% There is a political conspiracy of silence 00:00:29.060 --> 00:00:30.740 align:middle line:90% around the effects of Brexit. 00:00:30.740 --> 00:00:33.841 align:middle line:84% It spans the government, it spans the Labour Party. 00:00:33.841 --> 00:00:36.192 align:middle line:90% Make Brexit work. 00:00:36.192 --> 00:00:38.540 align:middle line:84% The UK's decision to leave the European Union 00:00:38.540 --> 00:00:40.700 align:middle line:90% is an act of economic self-harm. 00:00:40.700 --> 00:00:44.270 align:middle line:84% In terms of prices, investment, and in terms of trade, 00:00:44.270 --> 00:00:47.300 align:middle line:84% we're seeing negative effects, not a pandemic effect, not 00:00:47.300 --> 00:00:48.630 align:middle line:90% an energy crisis effect. 00:00:48.630 --> 00:00:50.390 align:middle line:84% These are very clearly Brexit effects. 00:00:54.612 --> 00:00:58.430 align:middle line:84% When the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, 00:00:58.430 --> 00:01:02.375 align:middle line:84% it seemed like a simple decision between leaving and staying. 00:01:02.375 --> 00:01:05.150 align:middle line:84% What we've ended up with, through many years 00:01:05.150 --> 00:01:08.030 align:middle line:84% of back and forth, has been pretty much 00:01:08.030 --> 00:01:11.870 align:middle line:84% the hardest, least aligned version of Brexit 00:01:11.870 --> 00:01:13.640 align:middle line:90% that you could get. 00:01:13.640 --> 00:01:15.980 align:middle line:84% We're not part of the European single market. 00:01:15.980 --> 00:01:17.720 align:middle line:84% We're not part of the customs union. 00:01:17.720 --> 00:01:21.785 align:middle line:84% We just have a very bare bones free trade agreement. 00:01:21.785 --> 00:01:24.325 align:middle line:84% And the costs of that have become clear over time. 00:01:24.325 --> 00:01:25.700 align:middle line:84% Of course, those have been masked 00:01:25.700 --> 00:01:28.880 align:middle line:84% by the Covid-19 pandemic, which shut down economies 00:01:28.880 --> 00:01:29.780 align:middle line:90% all over the world. 00:01:29.780 --> 00:01:31.820 align:middle line:84% And then the crisis in Ukraine, which 00:01:31.820 --> 00:01:33.740 align:middle line:84% has scrambled global energy markets, 00:01:33.740 --> 00:01:35.225 align:middle line:90% helped to drive inflation. 00:01:35.225 --> 00:01:37.100 align:middle line:84% But we're just now starting to see 00:01:37.100 --> 00:01:39.440 align:middle line:84% the Brexit effect coming through and it's not 00:01:39.440 --> 00:01:40.433 align:middle line:90% particularly pretty. 00:01:40.433 --> 00:01:45.630 align:middle line:84% Let June the 23rd go down in our history as our Independence 00:01:45.630 --> 00:01:46.130 align:middle line:90% Day. 00:01:49.220 --> 00:01:50.660 align:middle line:90% We've got our country back. 00:01:51.940 --> 00:01:55.850 align:middle line:84% We see it, first of all, in terms of the original vote 00:01:55.850 --> 00:01:57.110 align:middle line:90% to leave the EU. 00:01:57.110 --> 00:01:59.840 align:middle line:84% That sent the pound down about 10 per cent 00:01:59.840 --> 00:02:02.450 align:middle line:84% against our trading partners, and that 00:02:02.450 --> 00:02:04.100 align:middle line:90% makes imports more expensive. 00:02:04.100 --> 00:02:06.410 align:middle line:84% It also makes your exports more competitive. 00:02:06.410 --> 00:02:08.880 align:middle line:84% But in this case, our exports didn't budge. 00:02:08.880 --> 00:02:12.470 align:middle line:84% They didn't go up at all, but our import prices went up, 00:02:12.470 --> 00:02:15.540 align:middle line:84% and that raised inflation by about 2 per cent to 3 per cent. 00:02:15.540 --> 00:02:17.555 align:middle line:84% So that simply made people poorer. 00:02:17.555 --> 00:02:20.090 align:middle line:84% When it's been calculated that the immediate cost of that 00:02:20.090 --> 00:02:24.785 align:middle line:84% was about 870 pounds per household. 00:02:24.785 --> 00:02:25.580 align:middle line:90% I'm Dani Loughran. 00:02:25.580 --> 00:02:28.400 align:middle line:84% I'm the Managing Director of Aston Chemicals, a speciality 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:30.787 align:middle line:84% chemical distributor for the personal care industry. 00:02:30.787 --> 00:02:32.120 align:middle line:90% Well, our freight costs went up. 00:02:32.120 --> 00:02:34.287 align:middle line:84% Everything that's costed in dollars around the world 00:02:34.287 --> 00:02:37.040 align:middle line:84% became more expensive if you're paying in sterling, 00:02:37.040 --> 00:02:39.650 align:middle line:90% and that was caused by Brexit. 00:02:39.650 --> 00:02:42.200 align:middle line:84% For many years, the Brexit side of the debate 00:02:42.200 --> 00:02:44.750 align:middle line:84% felt they won the argument because there hadn't been 00:02:44.750 --> 00:02:47.210 align:middle line:90% much absolute panic in markets. 00:02:47.210 --> 00:02:50.390 align:middle line:84% In the recent "mini" Budget, Kwasi Kwarteng 00:02:50.390 --> 00:02:52.280 align:middle line:90% really spooked the markets. 00:02:52.280 --> 00:02:54.920 align:middle line:84% Sterling absolutely plummeted, then 00:02:54.920 --> 00:02:56.420 align:middle line:90% subsequently recovered a bit. 00:02:56.420 --> 00:02:58.220 align:middle line:84% But more serious was what's happened 00:02:58.220 --> 00:03:01.550 align:middle line:84% to government borrowing costs, because the financial markets 00:03:01.550 --> 00:03:04.100 align:middle line:84% have taken the view that the Budget was effectively 00:03:04.100 --> 00:03:04.780 align:middle line:90% reckless. 00:03:04.780 --> 00:03:08.420 align:middle line:84% You remember the statement we've had enough of experts. 00:03:08.420 --> 00:03:11.360 align:middle line:84% The "mini" Budget was really the culmination 00:03:11.360 --> 00:03:13.760 align:middle line:84% of the economic policies that have been put 00:03:13.760 --> 00:03:15.800 align:middle line:90% in place since the Brexit vote. 00:03:15.800 --> 00:03:18.260 align:middle line:84% Brexit's proponents refused to even discuss 00:03:18.260 --> 00:03:22.550 align:middle line:84% the idea that Brexit's a factor in the UK's performance. 00:03:22.550 --> 00:03:25.400 align:middle line:84% Brexit opponents, or Remainers, want 00:03:25.400 --> 00:03:27.410 align:middle line:90% to pin everything on Brexit. 00:03:27.410 --> 00:03:29.880 align:middle line:84% The truth is inevitably somewhere in between. 00:03:29.880 --> 00:03:32.840 align:middle line:84% But to say that Brexit isn't a factor in what you're seeing 00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:34.340 align:middle line:90% in the UK performance is silly. 00:03:34.340 --> 00:03:35.570 align:middle line:90% Of course, it is. 00:03:35.570 --> 00:03:38.240 align:middle line:84% We're starting to see a very interesting pattern emerging, 00:03:38.240 --> 00:03:39.920 align:middle line:84% comparing Britain with the performance 00:03:39.920 --> 00:03:41.420 align:middle line:90% of other advanced economies. 00:03:43.100 --> 00:03:45.890 align:middle line:84% After the pandemic, there was a trade recovery 00:03:45.890 --> 00:03:49.100 align:middle line:84% by all the other G7 countries and Britain's trade recovery 00:03:49.100 --> 00:03:50.315 align:middle line:90% has been more or less flat. 00:03:50.315 --> 00:03:52.905 align:middle line:84% So the UK fell behind in its trade intensity. 00:03:52.905 --> 00:03:54.530 align:middle line:84% One of the other things you can measure 00:03:54.530 --> 00:03:57.410 align:middle line:84% is the drop off in the number of trade relationships 00:03:57.410 --> 00:03:59.570 align:middle line:84% between smaller companies in the UK 00:03:59.570 --> 00:04:01.410 align:middle line:90% and their foreign counterparts. 00:04:01.410 --> 00:04:02.570 align:middle line:84% And that's important because it tells you 00:04:02.570 --> 00:04:04.237 align:middle line:84% something about trade patterns, but also 00:04:04.237 --> 00:04:05.612 align:middle line:84% tells you something about the way 00:04:05.612 --> 00:04:07.550 align:middle line:84% that smaller companies in the UK used 00:04:07.550 --> 00:04:09.530 align:middle line:84% to grow by gradually expanding their business, 00:04:09.530 --> 00:04:11.660 align:middle line:84% selling stuff into the European single market, 00:04:11.660 --> 00:04:13.740 align:middle line:84% and that's simply not happening anymore. 00:04:13.740 --> 00:04:17.130 align:middle line:84% The LSE has calculated that the number of relationships 00:04:17.130 --> 00:04:20.220 align:middle line:84% between the UK and the EU fell by about a third 00:04:20.220 --> 00:04:22.800 align:middle line:84% in the first six months after the Trade and Cooperation 00:04:22.800 --> 00:04:24.240 align:middle line:90% Agreement came into force. 00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:26.100 align:middle line:84% The Resolution Foundation has calculated 00:04:26.100 --> 00:04:32.872 align:middle line:84% that the long run hit to wages will be 470 pounds per person. 00:04:32.872 --> 00:04:36.000 align:middle line:84% Brexit has increased bureaucracy. 00:04:36.000 --> 00:04:37.800 align:middle line:84% Many small businesses have really 00:04:37.800 --> 00:04:41.820 align:middle line:84% struggled to get to grips with that. 00:04:41.820 --> 00:04:42.780 align:middle line:90% I'm Kiran Tawadey. 00:04:42.780 --> 00:04:44.640 align:middle line:84% Hampstead is an organic tea company. 00:04:44.640 --> 00:04:46.830 align:middle line:84% We import tea from all over the world 00:04:46.830 --> 00:04:48.300 align:middle line:90% and sell it all over the world. 00:04:48.300 --> 00:04:50.710 align:middle line:84% We were told that we would have the most amazing deal. 00:04:50.710 --> 00:04:52.620 align:middle line:84% We're going to get our sovereignty 00:04:52.620 --> 00:04:54.510 align:middle line:84% and we were going to keep all the advantages 00:04:54.510 --> 00:04:55.440 align:middle line:90% of being in the EU. 00:04:55.440 --> 00:04:57.565 align:middle line:84% As a business, we were dumb enough to believe that. 00:04:57.565 --> 00:05:00.270 align:middle line:84% Come January last year, we got an order from Italy, 00:05:00.270 --> 00:05:02.238 align:middle line:84% we shipped it, as normal, thinking 00:05:02.238 --> 00:05:03.780 align:middle line:84% there'll be a little bit of paperwork 00:05:03.780 --> 00:05:04.780 align:middle line:90% and we'll figure it out. 00:05:04.780 --> 00:05:08.820 align:middle line:84% And it sat for 12 weeks in different customs' houses. 00:05:08.820 --> 00:05:10.415 align:middle line:84% So the reality was very different. 00:05:10.415 --> 00:05:11.122 align:middle line:90% I'm Rob. 00:05:11.122 --> 00:05:12.165 align:middle line:90% I'm Vicky. 00:05:12.165 --> 00:05:15.780 align:middle line:84% And we co-founded Little Star Jewellery in 2017 00:05:15.780 --> 00:05:19.270 align:middle line:90% as a husband and wife team. 00:05:19.270 --> 00:05:22.960 align:middle line:84% The plan was always to establish the brand in the UK first, 00:05:22.960 --> 00:05:25.945 align:middle line:84% and then Ireland, onwards to France, onwards to Germany. 00:05:25.945 --> 00:05:28.930 align:middle line:84% The whole question of Brexit didn't really 00:05:28.930 --> 00:05:31.540 align:middle line:84% come into my thought much because at no point 00:05:31.540 --> 00:05:34.330 align:middle line:84% did I think it would be as complicated for businesses 00:05:34.330 --> 00:05:35.288 align:middle line:90% to grow and to develop. 00:05:35.288 --> 00:05:37.330 align:middle line:84% Remember, when we were part of the single market, 00:05:37.330 --> 00:05:40.120 align:middle line:84% you could throw a box of tea or a packet of bangers 00:05:40.120 --> 00:05:42.220 align:middle line:84% into the back of a van in Birmingham 00:05:42.220 --> 00:05:45.550 align:middle line:84% and just drive it to Barcelona, or Bonn, or Brussels 00:05:45.550 --> 00:05:47.200 align:middle line:90% without let or hindrance. 00:05:47.200 --> 00:05:48.715 align:middle line:90% Now you can't do that. 00:05:48.715 --> 00:05:51.430 align:middle line:84% The reality was January to June, we couldn't ship anything 00:05:51.430 --> 00:05:52.870 align:middle line:90% to the EU, nothing. 00:05:52.870 --> 00:05:55.120 align:middle line:84% It's 27 countries, they all have different borders, 00:05:55.120 --> 00:05:56.620 align:middle line:90% they all have different rules. 00:05:56.620 --> 00:05:58.780 align:middle line:84% And we were treated as a third country. 00:05:58.780 --> 00:06:00.700 align:middle line:90% And we just had to suck it up. 00:06:00.700 --> 00:06:02.980 align:middle line:84% Come May, I decided I needed to do something. 00:06:05.870 --> 00:06:09.040 align:middle line:84% I said, what if I set up my own entity in Europe 00:06:09.040 --> 00:06:11.620 align:middle line:84% and made that the master distributor for our company 00:06:11.620 --> 00:06:14.620 align:middle line:90% and for our products. 00:06:14.620 --> 00:06:16.480 align:middle line:84% And rather than sending small consignments 00:06:16.480 --> 00:06:19.120 align:middle line:84% at a time, which were very costly, and complicated, 00:06:19.120 --> 00:06:21.850 align:middle line:84% and time-hungry, and resource-hungry why not 00:06:21.850 --> 00:06:25.075 align:middle line:84% just do one big consignment every so often. 00:06:25.075 --> 00:06:28.120 align:middle line:84% Clear customs, all those formalities, VAT once, 00:06:28.120 --> 00:06:30.460 align:middle line:84% and then distribute out of the warehouse 00:06:30.460 --> 00:06:33.700 align:middle line:84% to all of your clients in the European Union. 00:06:33.700 --> 00:06:37.420 align:middle line:84% That means less business taking place in the UK 00:06:37.420 --> 00:06:40.900 align:middle line:84% and more business taking place in the European Union. 00:06:40.900 --> 00:06:43.000 align:middle line:84% It became just unviable for us to continue 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:45.280 align:middle line:84% to export from the UK and use the UK 00:06:45.280 --> 00:06:48.010 align:middle line:84% as our European distribution hub. 00:06:48.010 --> 00:06:49.940 align:middle line:84% Lorries would sit there for days on end. 00:06:49.940 --> 00:06:53.170 align:middle line:84% So we moved our entire European business to Poland. 00:06:53.170 --> 00:06:54.940 align:middle line:84% That immediately halved the amount 00:06:54.940 --> 00:06:57.140 align:middle line:84% of product coming through this warehouse. 00:06:57.140 --> 00:06:59.230 align:middle line:84% We are now using fewer freight partners 00:06:59.230 --> 00:07:01.060 align:middle line:84% in the UK, more in Germany and Poland, 00:07:01.060 --> 00:07:04.540 align:middle line:84% paying our customs duties to EU countries. 00:07:04.540 --> 00:07:07.240 align:middle line:84% We're employing fewer people in the UK and more in Poland. 00:07:07.240 --> 00:07:09.490 align:middle line:84% It's a reduction in money that we 00:07:09.490 --> 00:07:11.770 align:middle line:90% are paying to the UK economy. 00:07:11.770 --> 00:07:13.935 align:middle line:84% We were lucky that we were able to do that. 00:07:13.935 --> 00:07:15.460 align:middle line:90% We've got some agents in France. 00:07:15.460 --> 00:07:19.150 align:middle line:84% We're doing really well in the Netherlands and in Spain. 00:07:19.150 --> 00:07:21.970 align:middle line:84% All of that has just disappeared. 00:07:24.025 --> 00:07:26.230 align:middle line:84% We lost so much business overnight with Holland, 00:07:26.230 --> 00:07:28.810 align:middle line:84% but it doesn't mean that we have enough business already 00:07:28.810 --> 00:07:32.350 align:middle line:84% established that we'd go and set up an office in Amsterdam. 00:07:32.350 --> 00:07:36.460 align:middle line:84% It's not viable for a business of our size of two people. 00:07:36.460 --> 00:07:39.070 align:middle line:84% Getting the product to customers in the European 00:07:39.070 --> 00:07:42.070 align:middle line:84% Union would have been 2 days, has now become 21 days. 00:07:42.070 --> 00:07:43.570 align:middle line:84% The only angle for us around that 00:07:43.570 --> 00:07:45.340 align:middle line:84% is to do deals with distributors, 00:07:45.340 --> 00:07:47.380 align:middle line:84% but those people work on between 30 per cent 00:07:47.380 --> 00:07:49.060 align:middle line:90% and 35 per cent margins. 00:07:49.060 --> 00:07:51.790 align:middle line:84% We're left with virtually nothing 00:07:51.790 --> 00:07:54.460 align:middle line:90% or we let the business go. 00:07:54.460 --> 00:07:57.250 align:middle line:84% We got a Dutch sales agent who opened over 30 doors 00:07:57.250 --> 00:08:00.250 align:middle line:84% in the space of two months, was over 30 customers have become 2 00:08:00.250 --> 00:08:02.350 align:middle line:84% because only 2 of them can actually 00:08:02.350 --> 00:08:04.420 align:middle line:84% be bothered with the implications of what they've 00:08:04.420 --> 00:08:06.060 align:middle line:90% got to do to get stock from us. 00:08:06.060 --> 00:08:07.435 align:middle line:84% It's just too much of a headache. 00:08:07.435 --> 00:08:10.300 align:middle line:84% That is the long-term danger for the British economy. 00:08:10.300 --> 00:08:13.060 align:middle line:84% That smaller companies that used to expand 00:08:13.060 --> 00:08:16.070 align:middle line:84% by starting to move into European markets, 00:08:16.070 --> 00:08:18.940 align:middle line:84% which was very easy to do before 2016, 00:08:18.940 --> 00:08:20.392 align:middle line:90% will simply just not do that. 00:08:20.392 --> 00:08:22.100 align:middle line:84% We were just upsetting all our customers. 00:08:22.100 --> 00:08:23.500 align:middle line:84% One of them actually said to us, we 00:08:23.500 --> 00:08:25.083 align:middle line:84% don't want to deal with the UK anymore 00:08:25.083 --> 00:08:28.280 align:middle line:84% when we can find equal products from within the EU. 00:08:28.280 --> 00:08:29.233 align:middle line:90% So I'm really sorry. 00:08:29.233 --> 00:08:30.400 align:middle line:90% It was a tough conversation. 00:08:30.400 --> 00:08:31.660 align:middle line:90% We went to a trade show. 00:08:31.660 --> 00:08:35.320 align:middle line:84% No European customers came to the UK pavilion. 00:08:35.320 --> 00:08:36.902 align:middle line:84% And we overheard one of them saying, 00:08:36.902 --> 00:08:38.110 align:middle line:90% there's no point going there. 00:08:38.110 --> 00:08:40.549 align:middle line:84% With Brexit, we don't even know what's going to happen. 00:08:40.549 --> 00:08:43.960 align:middle line:84% So there's no point trying to build new alliances 00:08:43.960 --> 00:08:45.355 align:middle line:90% with British suppliers. 00:08:45.355 --> 00:08:47.560 align:middle line:84% The damage from non-tariff barriers 00:08:47.560 --> 00:08:49.540 align:middle line:90% is it puts the UK behind a wall. 00:08:49.540 --> 00:08:51.730 align:middle line:84% The European Union, 27 countries, 00:08:51.730 --> 00:08:55.450 align:middle line:84% that have one set of rules for the movement of goods, people, 00:08:55.450 --> 00:08:56.890 align:middle line:90% capital, and labour. 00:08:56.890 --> 00:09:00.760 align:middle line:84% It's broadly more cost, more aggro, more uncertainty, 00:09:00.760 --> 00:09:03.460 align:middle line:90% more delays, less efficiency. 00:09:03.460 --> 00:09:05.440 align:middle line:84% In some cases, a sort of unequal playing 00:09:05.440 --> 00:09:07.360 align:middle line:90% field with competitors overseas. 00:09:07.360 --> 00:09:09.160 align:middle line:84% A French company will buy from Germany 00:09:09.160 --> 00:09:12.340 align:middle line:84% because they'll probably be able to get the same product easier 00:09:12.340 --> 00:09:14.950 align:middle line:84% and without any of the extra costs 00:09:14.950 --> 00:09:18.880 align:middle line:84% that we're having to apply to get it out of the UK. 00:09:18.880 --> 00:09:21.850 align:middle line:84% We design all of the range here, and then we 00:09:21.850 --> 00:09:25.850 align:middle line:84% send it out to manufacturers in Thailand and Hong Kong. 00:09:25.850 --> 00:09:28.660 align:middle line:84% We have a tariff for it coming into the UK, 00:09:28.660 --> 00:09:30.310 align:middle line:84% then have to pay another tariff when 00:09:30.310 --> 00:09:32.890 align:middle line:84% we're sending out of the UK, because it's not 00:09:32.890 --> 00:09:34.185 align:middle line:90% produced in the UK. 00:09:34.185 --> 00:09:35.890 align:middle line:90% The EU is very bureaucratic. 00:09:35.890 --> 00:09:38.170 align:middle line:84% Before that we were within the bureaucracy and now 00:09:38.170 --> 00:09:39.325 align:middle line:90% we're outside of it. 00:09:39.325 --> 00:09:40.940 align:middle line:84% The whole story about EU red tape 00:09:40.940 --> 00:09:43.607 align:middle line:84% making things more difficult for businesses from our perspective 00:09:43.607 --> 00:09:44.510 align:middle line:90% is a complete lie. 00:09:46.460 --> 00:09:48.470 align:middle line:84% Since 2016, business investment has 00:09:48.470 --> 00:09:53.033 align:middle line:84% been growing in all other G7 countries, but not in the UK. 00:09:53.033 --> 00:09:54.950 align:middle line:84% You can see that for a very long time business 00:09:54.950 --> 00:09:57.350 align:middle line:84% investment was an upward curve in the UK, 00:09:57.350 --> 00:10:00.170 align:middle line:84% but since 2016 in particular and the Brexit vote, 00:10:00.170 --> 00:10:01.458 align:middle line:90% it's been plateauing. 00:10:01.458 --> 00:10:03.500 align:middle line:84% And the government's been trying to rectify this. 00:10:03.500 --> 00:10:05.125 align:middle line:84% It's been throwing lots of money at it. 00:10:05.125 --> 00:10:07.430 align:middle line:84% They've introduced something called the superdeduction, 00:10:07.430 --> 00:10:09.830 align:middle line:84% where you get huge allowances if you invest 00:10:09.830 --> 00:10:12.860 align:middle line:84% in capital and innovation, but it hasn't really 00:10:12.860 --> 00:10:13.767 align:middle line:90% shifted the dial. 00:10:13.767 --> 00:10:16.670 align:middle line:84% And really worrying for the future of our economy 00:10:16.670 --> 00:10:19.580 align:middle line:84% because in the end, investment drives 00:10:19.580 --> 00:10:22.160 align:middle line:84% the capital and the ability for economies 00:10:22.160 --> 00:10:23.352 align:middle line:90% to grow into the future. 00:10:23.352 --> 00:10:24.810 align:middle line:84% And some people are saying, I mean, 00:10:24.810 --> 00:10:27.393 align:middle line:84% Brexit's not the only thing by any stretch of the imagination, 00:10:27.393 --> 00:10:28.790 align:middle line:90% but something is going on. 00:10:28.790 --> 00:10:32.270 align:middle line:84% There might be a small effect that the UK is a more service 00:10:32.270 --> 00:10:33.890 align:middle line:84% sector driven economy than others. 00:10:33.890 --> 00:10:36.320 align:middle line:84% But France is just as much of a service sector 00:10:36.320 --> 00:10:37.770 align:middle line:90% economy as the UK. 00:10:37.770 --> 00:10:39.680 align:middle line:84% Germany, big manufacturing economy, 00:10:39.680 --> 00:10:41.540 align:middle line:84% isn't that much more of a manufacturing 00:10:41.540 --> 00:10:42.890 align:middle line:90% economy than the UK. 00:10:42.890 --> 00:10:44.300 align:middle line:84% And in every other country, we've 00:10:44.300 --> 00:10:46.460 align:middle line:84% seen much more business investment. 00:10:46.460 --> 00:10:47.720 align:middle line:90% This is the Brexit effect. 00:10:47.720 --> 00:10:50.450 align:middle line:84% People don't know the direction of the UK economy. 00:10:50.450 --> 00:10:53.315 align:middle line:84% Inevitably business investment doesn't grow as strongly. 00:10:56.650 --> 00:11:01.120 align:middle line:84% We've seen in all areas, in prices, in terms of investment, 00:11:01.120 --> 00:11:04.510 align:middle line:84% and in terms of trade, we're seeing negative effects 00:11:04.510 --> 00:11:07.960 align:middle line:84% due to Brexit, which we can now pinpoint as a Brexit effect, 00:11:07.960 --> 00:11:11.000 align:middle line:84% not a pandemic effect, not an energy crisis effect. 00:11:11.000 --> 00:11:13.715 align:middle line:84% These are very clearly Brexit effects. 00:11:13.715 --> 00:11:16.090 align:middle line:84% Plainly there's been a huge impact on the British economy 00:11:16.090 --> 00:11:17.680 align:middle line:90% caused by the Covid pandemic. 00:11:17.680 --> 00:11:20.745 align:middle line:84% Equally the supply chain effects of the Ukraine war, 00:11:20.745 --> 00:11:22.120 align:middle line:84% particularly on the energy price. 00:11:22.120 --> 00:11:24.370 align:middle line:84% It would be ludicrous to claim that problems facing 00:11:24.370 --> 00:11:26.710 align:middle line:84% the British economy are exclusively down to Brexit, 00:11:26.710 --> 00:11:29.770 align:middle line:84% but what you can do is to draw a comparison between Britain 00:11:29.770 --> 00:11:31.545 align:middle line:90% and other countries. 00:11:31.545 --> 00:11:34.510 align:middle line:84% We see the UK pretty close to the bottom of the league table 00:11:34.510 --> 00:11:36.710 align:middle line:84% in terms of the forecast for economic growth, 00:11:36.710 --> 00:11:38.380 align:middle line:90% particularly in 2023. 00:11:38.380 --> 00:11:41.660 align:middle line:84% So the UK essentially sees no growth at all. 00:11:41.660 --> 00:11:44.890 align:middle line:84% And the only country that was worse than the UK 00:11:44.890 --> 00:11:46.600 align:middle line:90% was sanctioned Russia. 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:49.930 align:middle line:84% You can explore the gap between the UK's performance, which 00:11:49.930 --> 00:11:52.930 align:middle line:84% has uniquely suffered Brexit, and the performance 00:11:52.930 --> 00:11:54.565 align:middle line:84% of other economies that have not. 00:11:54.565 --> 00:11:56.482 align:middle line:84% The UK government would argue that's something 00:11:56.482 --> 00:11:58.900 align:middle line:84% to do with the bungee jump effect of the pandemic 00:11:58.900 --> 00:12:01.550 align:middle line:84% where Britain went down, then came back up more quickly, 00:12:01.550 --> 00:12:03.295 align:middle line:84% and now things are settling down again. 00:12:03.295 --> 00:12:05.200 align:middle line:84% I think it's really easy for the government 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:08.085 align:middle line:84% to try and push the Brexit effect under the carpet 00:12:08.085 --> 00:12:10.210 align:middle line:84% and blame everything onto Covid, and now everything 00:12:10.210 --> 00:12:11.100 align:middle line:90% onto Ukraine. 00:12:11.100 --> 00:12:12.850 align:middle line:84% I can see it in the figures and in the way 00:12:12.850 --> 00:12:15.040 align:middle line:84% that our business is operating that we were really 00:12:15.040 --> 00:12:16.600 align:middle line:90% hit badly by Brexit last year. 00:12:16.600 --> 00:12:18.760 align:middle line:84% We've put measures in place that are 00:12:18.760 --> 00:12:20.980 align:middle line:84% detrimental to the British economy unfortunately, 00:12:20.980 --> 00:12:22.480 align:middle line:90% but will help us. 00:12:22.480 --> 00:12:24.040 align:middle line:84% The Office for Budget Responsibility 00:12:24.040 --> 00:12:26.620 align:middle line:84% thinks that ultimately Brexit will 00:12:26.620 --> 00:12:29.680 align:middle line:84% cause the UK to be 4 per cent worse off. 00:12:29.680 --> 00:12:34.270 align:middle line:84% It's about 100bn pounds a year that the economy is not 00:12:34.270 --> 00:12:38.600 align:middle line:84% producing 40bn pounds of tax revenues or so. 00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:42.490 align:middle line:84% We are poorer because we're not getting that economic growth 00:12:42.490 --> 00:12:44.335 align:middle line:84% that we otherwise would have done. 00:12:46.795 --> 00:12:49.210 align:middle line:84% The Brexiteer notion of a Brexit dividend 00:12:49.210 --> 00:12:51.730 align:middle line:84% is often based around the idea that the UK 00:12:51.730 --> 00:12:53.990 align:middle line:90% can have a nimbler economy. 00:12:53.990 --> 00:12:55.240 align:middle line:90% It can deregulate. 00:12:55.240 --> 00:12:57.820 align:middle line:84% The difficulty is, when you deregulate, you create 00:12:57.820 --> 00:13:00.315 align:middle line:90% a separate regulatory system. 00:13:00.315 --> 00:13:02.890 align:middle line:84% The chemical industry spent 500mn pounds 00:13:02.890 --> 00:13:06.340 align:middle line:84% over a decade registering their chemicals in the European 00:13:06.340 --> 00:13:09.430 align:middle line:84% Union, which gave them access to the British market and 27 00:13:09.430 --> 00:13:10.330 align:middle line:90% other countries. 00:13:10.330 --> 00:13:11.920 align:middle line:84% They're now having to re-register 00:13:11.920 --> 00:13:14.920 align:middle line:84% all of those chemicals for a separate UK register 00:13:14.920 --> 00:13:18.915 align:middle line:84% at a cost now estimated by the government at 2bn pounds. 00:13:18.915 --> 00:13:21.790 align:middle line:84% So what we've essentially done is ask industry 00:13:21.790 --> 00:13:27.280 align:middle line:84% to spend billions of pounds duplicating a regime that 00:13:27.280 --> 00:13:29.000 align:middle line:90% already existed in the EU. 00:13:29.000 --> 00:13:30.500 align:middle line:84% And because we want to be sovereign, 00:13:30.500 --> 00:13:32.500 align:middle line:84% we want to be different, we're building our own. 00:13:32.500 --> 00:13:34.300 align:middle line:90% But that is just cost. 00:13:34.300 --> 00:13:37.480 align:middle line:84% I don't understand anyone who says that deregulation is going 00:13:37.480 --> 00:13:38.860 align:middle line:90% to be a benefit to industry. 00:13:38.860 --> 00:13:40.240 align:middle line:84% From my industry's point of view, 00:13:40.240 --> 00:13:43.300 align:middle line:84% it is nothing but extra costs, bureaucracy, and work 00:13:43.300 --> 00:13:44.950 align:middle line:90% for no advantage whatsoever. 00:13:47.795 --> 00:13:49.240 align:middle line:90% It's a British business. 00:13:49.240 --> 00:13:53.170 align:middle line:84% After we've left, the EU has faced a recruitment crisis. 00:13:53.170 --> 00:13:56.780 align:middle line:84% Areas like construction, hospitality, social care, 00:13:56.780 --> 00:13:57.912 align:middle line:90% agriculture. 00:13:57.912 --> 00:14:00.370 align:middle line:84% Again, you can argue till you're blue in the face about how 00:14:00.370 --> 00:14:03.610 align:middle line:84% much of that is Brexit, how many people left because of Brexit, 00:14:03.610 --> 00:14:05.560 align:middle line:84% or how much of that was because of Covid. 00:14:05.560 --> 00:14:07.600 align:middle line:84% Some people would argue that's for the better, 00:14:07.600 --> 00:14:11.440 align:middle line:84% that we've cut off that supply of cheap European Union labour 00:14:11.440 --> 00:14:14.050 align:middle line:84% that was able to come across to work in the UK under free 00:14:14.050 --> 00:14:14.860 align:middle line:90% movement. 00:14:14.860 --> 00:14:17.980 align:middle line:84% The idea eventually is that companies will invest more 00:14:17.980 --> 00:14:22.390 align:middle line:84% in machinery and other ways to enhance productivity 00:14:22.390 --> 00:14:24.160 align:middle line:90% to compensate. 00:14:24.160 --> 00:14:26.665 align:middle line:84% But it's certainly caused some disruption in the short-term. 00:14:26.665 --> 00:14:29.530 align:middle line:84% And the idea that the government was putting forward last year 00:14:29.530 --> 00:14:31.270 align:middle line:84% that this was all part of the plan 00:14:31.270 --> 00:14:35.500 align:middle line:84% to develop a high-skilled, high-wage economy 00:14:35.500 --> 00:14:38.565 align:middle line:84% was problematic at the time and is problematic today. 00:14:38.565 --> 00:14:40.210 align:middle line:84% So the end of free movement means 00:14:40.210 --> 00:14:42.370 align:middle line:90% that the economy is reshaped. 00:14:42.370 --> 00:14:45.820 align:middle line:84% For some industries, like hospitality and construction, 00:14:45.820 --> 00:14:49.127 align:middle line:84% or soft fruit growing, that creates a painful period 00:14:49.127 --> 00:14:50.710 align:middle line:84% of adjustment because those industries 00:14:50.710 --> 00:14:54.280 align:middle line:84% were predicated on the idea that there would be free movement. 00:14:54.280 --> 00:14:56.500 align:middle line:84% But ultimately that's a political choice. 00:14:56.500 --> 00:14:58.840 align:middle line:84% We don't have to have a soft fruit industry. 00:14:58.840 --> 00:15:01.030 align:middle line:84% We had one as a result of free movement. 00:15:01.030 --> 00:15:04.375 align:middle line:84% We now have to decide if we want one going forward. 00:15:11.670 --> 00:15:14.100 align:middle line:84% The long running row over Northern Ireland, 00:15:14.100 --> 00:15:15.660 align:middle line:84% creating a border in the Irish Sea 00:15:15.660 --> 00:15:18.210 align:middle line:84% to avoid the north-south border returning 00:15:18.210 --> 00:15:23.265 align:middle line:84% on the island of Ireland has poisoned EU-UK relations. 00:15:23.265 --> 00:15:25.320 align:middle line:84% The EU is using us as a negotiating chip 00:15:25.320 --> 00:15:29.130 align:middle line:84% and saying that Britain can't join the Horizon Science 00:15:29.130 --> 00:15:31.650 align:middle line:84% Research Project, which is worth 95bn euros, 00:15:31.650 --> 00:15:33.518 align:middle line:84% hugely important to British scientists 00:15:33.518 --> 00:15:34.560 align:middle line:90% and British universities. 00:15:34.560 --> 00:15:36.518 align:middle line:84% But it's blocked because the British government 00:15:36.518 --> 00:15:40.290 align:middle line:84% is trying unilaterally to rip up its obligations in Northern 00:15:40.290 --> 00:15:40.920 align:middle line:90% Ireland. 00:15:40.920 --> 00:15:43.350 align:middle line:84% While we have that attitude still in place, 00:15:43.350 --> 00:15:45.990 align:middle line:84% I think it's very difficult to see our trading 00:15:45.990 --> 00:15:47.430 align:middle line:90% relationships improve. 00:15:47.430 --> 00:15:50.040 align:middle line:84% The discussion about Northern Ireland and its future trading 00:15:50.040 --> 00:15:52.123 align:middle line:84% relationship was one of the things that bedevilled 00:15:52.123 --> 00:15:54.090 align:middle line:90% the negotiations about Brexit. 00:15:54.090 --> 00:15:56.220 align:middle line:84% Everybody knew it was going to be a problem, 00:15:56.220 --> 00:15:57.600 align:middle line:90% but we did the deal anyway. 00:15:57.600 --> 00:15:58.620 align:middle line:90% We voted for Brexit. 00:15:58.620 --> 00:16:01.350 align:middle line:84% We signed a so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, 00:16:01.350 --> 00:16:03.687 align:middle line:84% which Boris Johnson and Lord David Frost, 00:16:03.687 --> 00:16:06.270 align:middle line:84% the former Brexit minister who negotiated the Northern Ireland 00:16:06.270 --> 00:16:09.260 align:middle line:84% Protocol, spent the last several years trashing. 00:16:09.260 --> 00:16:11.190 align:middle line:84% I seem to think it's become of some surprise 00:16:11.190 --> 00:16:12.630 align:middle line:84% that the European Court of Justice 00:16:12.630 --> 00:16:16.050 align:middle line:84% applies EU rules to Northern Ireland when they have agreed 00:16:16.050 --> 00:16:18.480 align:middle line:84% that Northern Ireland should remain as part of the EU 00:16:18.480 --> 00:16:19.972 align:middle line:90% single market for goods. 00:16:19.972 --> 00:16:21.930 align:middle line:84% The one thing I say about the Northern Protocol 00:16:21.930 --> 00:16:24.768 align:middle line:84% is that it's given Northern Ireland's an incredible trading 00:16:24.768 --> 00:16:25.560 align:middle line:90% position in Europe. 00:16:25.560 --> 00:16:27.850 align:middle line:84% It's the only place in the whole of Europe, 00:16:27.850 --> 00:16:30.120 align:middle line:84% which has one foot in the UK single market 00:16:30.120 --> 00:16:32.440 align:middle line:84% and another foot in the European Union single market. 00:16:32.440 --> 00:16:34.260 align:middle line:84% It's an unwelcome fact for Brexiteers 00:16:34.260 --> 00:16:37.650 align:middle line:84% that Northern Ireland has become an economic success story 00:16:37.650 --> 00:16:39.953 align:middle line:84% and booming, certainly in terms of inward investment. 00:16:39.953 --> 00:16:41.370 align:middle line:84% One of the reasons it's doing well 00:16:41.370 --> 00:16:43.980 align:middle line:84% is because it has a place in the European single market 00:16:43.980 --> 00:16:44.550 align:middle line:90% for goods. 00:16:44.550 --> 00:16:46.883 align:middle line:84% It's exactly the same trading position with the European 00:16:46.883 --> 00:16:48.390 align:middle line:84% Union that the whole of the UK had 00:16:48.390 --> 00:16:49.650 align:middle line:90% until a couple of years ago. 00:16:53.150 --> 00:16:55.880 align:middle line:84% There is a political conspiracy of silence around Brexit 00:16:55.880 --> 00:16:57.440 align:middle line:90% and the effects of Brexit. 00:16:57.440 --> 00:17:01.040 align:middle line:84% It spans the government, it spans the Labour Party 00:17:01.040 --> 00:17:01.985 align:middle line:90% in particular. 00:17:01.985 --> 00:17:05.180 align:middle line:84% It's very hard to separate out the effects of Covid 00:17:05.180 --> 00:17:06.740 align:middle line:90% and the effects of Brexit. 00:17:06.740 --> 00:17:08.220 align:middle line:84% The governor of the Bank of England 00:17:08.220 --> 00:17:09.470 align:middle line:90% doesn't want to talk about it. 00:17:09.470 --> 00:17:12.590 align:middle line:84% It's become a kind of taboo around this whole subject. 00:17:12.590 --> 00:17:14.150 align:middle line:84% We absolutely need an honest debate 00:17:14.150 --> 00:17:16.430 align:middle line:84% about the economic effects of Brexit. 00:17:16.430 --> 00:17:19.910 align:middle line:84% Once you had a government, of whichever party willing to look 00:17:19.910 --> 00:17:22.069 align:middle line:84% at the facts, then they could start 00:17:22.069 --> 00:17:25.010 align:middle line:84% saying it looks as if Brexit has hurt us. 00:17:25.010 --> 00:17:26.420 align:middle line:90% It's making you poorer. 00:17:26.420 --> 00:17:28.760 align:middle line:84% This is what our evidence suggests. 00:17:28.760 --> 00:17:30.710 align:middle line:84% The evidence will say that, by the way. 00:17:30.710 --> 00:17:32.660 align:middle line:84% And then once you say that to the public 00:17:32.660 --> 00:17:35.465 align:middle line:84% and keep repeating it, you can start opening the debate. 00:17:35.465 --> 00:17:37.850 align:middle line:84% Politically, the truth is neither party 00:17:37.850 --> 00:17:39.740 align:middle line:90% can be honest about Brexit. 00:17:39.740 --> 00:17:42.140 align:middle line:84% The Tory Party doesn't want to be honest 00:17:42.140 --> 00:17:44.510 align:middle line:84% that the actual choice that Brexit presents 00:17:44.510 --> 00:17:47.270 align:middle line:84% is between being a rule-taker, between subjugation, 00:17:47.270 --> 00:17:49.730 align:middle line:84% like Norway, and self-harm, which 00:17:49.730 --> 00:17:52.910 align:middle line:84% is all the economic damage that comes from walling yourself off 00:17:52.910 --> 00:17:55.490 align:middle line:84% from your nearest and biggest market. 00:17:55.490 --> 00:17:58.040 align:middle line:84% And the Labour Party doesn't want to talk about Brexit 00:17:58.040 --> 00:18:02.180 align:middle line:84% because it reminds voters why they voted Tory. 00:18:02.180 --> 00:18:04.700 align:middle line:84% The Labour Party, as the Tory's frame it, 00:18:04.700 --> 00:18:06.575 align:middle line:90% tried to block Brexit. 00:18:06.575 --> 00:18:08.600 align:middle line:84% This is still a live rail in British politics. 00:18:08.600 --> 00:18:11.210 align:middle line:84% People don't want to go anywhere near Brexit. 00:18:11.210 --> 00:18:12.620 align:middle line:90% It's divided the country. 00:18:12.620 --> 00:18:13.850 align:middle line:90% It's divided communities. 00:18:13.850 --> 00:18:14.960 align:middle line:90% It's divided families. 00:18:14.960 --> 00:18:16.880 align:middle line:84% But in a way, that shields us from a debate, 00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:20.153 align:middle line:84% which we should be having, about how we can make Brexit 00:18:20.153 --> 00:18:22.445 align:middle line:84% functioning in a way which doesn't distort the economy. 00:18:24.410 --> 00:18:26.120 align:middle line:84% People who speak out against Brexit 00:18:26.120 --> 00:18:30.620 align:middle line:84% are often decried as Re-moaners or Re-maniacs. 00:18:30.620 --> 00:18:32.690 align:middle line:84% We're all being asked to accept something 00:18:32.690 --> 00:18:36.020 align:middle line:84% which in 2015 was only the official policy of the UK 00:18:36.020 --> 00:18:37.730 align:middle line:90% Independence Party. 00:18:37.730 --> 00:18:40.400 align:middle line:84% Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, 00:18:40.400 --> 00:18:45.170 align:middle line:84% Greens, trade unions, the CBI, the whole of British political 00:18:45.170 --> 00:18:48.440 align:middle line:84% and civic society believe Britain was better off inside 00:18:48.440 --> 00:18:49.370 align:middle line:90% the European Union. 00:18:49.370 --> 00:18:52.760 align:middle line:84% And yet we are all being told we have to pay allegiance. 00:18:52.760 --> 00:18:55.730 align:middle line:90% This is a new national policy. 00:18:55.730 --> 00:18:59.930 align:middle line:84% I expected there to be a one year down the road recap 00:18:59.930 --> 00:19:02.420 align:middle line:84% what went wrong, and what was right, and how we can fix it, 00:19:02.420 --> 00:19:03.745 align:middle line:90% but we haven't seen that. 00:19:03.745 --> 00:19:05.870 align:middle line:84% It would be really good to hear what other people's 00:19:05.870 --> 00:19:06.800 align:middle line:90% experiences have been. 00:19:06.800 --> 00:19:08.970 align:middle line:84% There might be some good news stories, I don't know. 00:19:08.970 --> 00:19:09.803 align:middle line:90% I haven't heard any. 00:19:09.803 --> 00:19:12.260 align:middle line:84% I find it hard to think of anyone who said, 00:19:12.260 --> 00:19:15.250 align:middle line:84% this has been brilliant for my business. 00:19:15.250 --> 00:19:17.830 align:middle line:84% Some businesses will win as a result of Brexit. 00:19:17.830 --> 00:19:20.290 align:middle line:84% Businesses that can produce products 00:19:20.290 --> 00:19:23.260 align:middle line:84% for the UK market that are now too complicated or too 00:19:23.260 --> 00:19:26.500 align:middle line:90% difficult to import from the EU. 00:19:26.500 --> 00:19:30.505 align:middle line:84% That doesn't necessarily mean that the UK economy is winning. 00:19:30.505 --> 00:19:32.980 align:middle line:84% EU-based companies have gained some of our contracts. 00:19:32.980 --> 00:19:35.380 align:middle line:84% The EU freight companies that are gaining our freight 00:19:35.380 --> 00:19:37.052 align:middle line:84% business, that isn't in the UK anymore, 00:19:37.052 --> 00:19:38.260 align:middle line:90% they're all doing quite well. 00:19:38.260 --> 00:19:39.718 align:middle line:84% The people in Poland that we've had 00:19:39.718 --> 00:19:41.958 align:middle line:84% to employ in warehouses rather than people in the UK, 00:19:41.958 --> 00:19:43.000 align:middle line:90% they're doing quite well. 00:19:45.370 --> 00:19:47.470 align:middle line:84% In theory, the City of London is a place 00:19:47.470 --> 00:19:49.780 align:middle line:84% where the UK being able to make its own rules 00:19:49.780 --> 00:19:50.890 align:middle line:90% should be important. 00:19:50.890 --> 00:19:53.650 align:middle line:84% This is our sector that we're the best at, 00:19:53.650 --> 00:19:55.360 align:middle line:90% that we know the most about. 00:19:55.360 --> 00:19:57.400 align:middle line:84% We were responsible for a lot of rule-making 00:19:57.400 --> 00:19:59.140 align:middle line:90% while we were within the EU. 00:19:59.140 --> 00:20:02.410 align:middle line:84% To date, we haven't seen the results of that. 00:20:02.410 --> 00:20:04.930 align:middle line:84% The predictions of doom for the City of London 00:20:04.930 --> 00:20:06.850 align:middle line:90% were always overdone. 00:20:06.850 --> 00:20:10.300 align:middle line:84% Big institutions, in particular, spent time actually 00:20:10.300 --> 00:20:13.090 align:middle line:84% quite early on in the process Brexit proofing 00:20:13.090 --> 00:20:15.640 align:middle line:84% their operations so that they could operate legally 00:20:15.640 --> 00:20:17.290 align:middle line:90% whatever the outcome was. 00:20:17.290 --> 00:20:19.210 align:middle line:84% What we've seen since then I think 00:20:19.210 --> 00:20:23.980 align:middle line:84% is a slow drip where business and people get relocated 00:20:23.980 --> 00:20:27.610 align:middle line:84% to other places where it makes more sense for them to be. 00:20:27.610 --> 00:20:30.940 align:middle line:84% The City was the natural place to do financial business 00:20:30.940 --> 00:20:34.510 align:middle line:84% in Europe and Brexit introduced a question mark into that. 00:20:34.510 --> 00:20:36.010 align:middle line:84% We weren't given enough information. 00:20:36.010 --> 00:20:39.750 align:middle line:84% We weren't told what Brexit would actually look like. 00:20:39.750 --> 00:20:41.868 align:middle line:84% The losers will be some of the younger people 00:20:41.868 --> 00:20:42.910 align:middle line:90% who voted against Brexit. 00:20:42.910 --> 00:20:45.642 align:middle line:84% If you look at the age profile of people who voted for leave, 00:20:45.642 --> 00:20:48.100 align:middle line:84% there's a vote amongst the older members of the population. 00:20:51.550 --> 00:20:54.880 align:middle line:84% The younger generation will start to discuss this topic. 00:20:54.880 --> 00:20:56.350 align:middle line:84% They can't travel easily anymore. 00:20:56.350 --> 00:20:58.780 align:middle line:84% They need a nomad visa if they want to work in Europe. 00:20:58.780 --> 00:21:01.000 align:middle line:84% They can no longer invest in Europe easily. 00:21:01.000 --> 00:21:04.810 align:middle line:84% And with the geopolitical situation on a knife-edge, 00:21:04.810 --> 00:21:07.540 align:middle line:84% it would be nice to be a part of a bigger group. 00:21:07.540 --> 00:21:11.102 align:middle line:84% And I feel sorry that we aren't for the next generation. 00:21:11.102 --> 00:21:13.415 align:middle line:84% Don't watch people who are not rich Remainers. 00:21:13.415 --> 00:21:15.430 align:middle line:84% Will Britain leave the EU on time? 00:21:15.430 --> 00:21:16.120 align:middle line:90% Sure. 00:21:16.120 --> 00:21:17.620 align:middle line:84% You certainly hear conservatives who 00:21:17.620 --> 00:21:19.390 align:middle line:84% say that if you can't demonstrate 00:21:19.390 --> 00:21:21.310 align:middle line:84% the benefits of Brexit by the next election, 00:21:21.310 --> 00:21:23.800 align:middle line:84% you're going to be in serious trouble. 00:21:23.800 --> 00:21:27.760 align:middle line:84% And so you have the creation of jobs like Brexit Opportunities 00:21:27.760 --> 00:21:28.525 align:middle line:90% Minister. 00:21:28.525 --> 00:21:31.300 align:middle line:84% Leaving the European Union is the most fantastic opportunity 00:21:31.300 --> 00:21:32.260 align:middle line:90% for the United Kingdom. 00:21:32.260 --> 00:21:34.635 align:middle line:84% The benefits of Brexit are always just around the corner. 00:21:34.635 --> 00:21:36.730 align:middle line:84% If this happened six years ago, by now, 00:21:36.730 --> 00:21:38.313 align:middle line:84% somebody in government, given the fact 00:21:38.313 --> 00:21:40.563 align:middle line:84% this is a Brexiteer government, should have identified 00:21:40.563 --> 00:21:41.620 align:middle line:90% what the benefits are. 00:21:41.620 --> 00:21:46.360 align:middle line:84% The Brexiteers haven't really formulated a cogent case 00:21:46.360 --> 00:21:51.580 align:middle line:84% as to why walling the UK off from its largest 00:21:51.580 --> 00:21:56.230 align:middle line:84% market on its doorstep will lead to a better economy. 00:21:56.230 --> 00:21:59.140 align:middle line:84% When the government unleashed its Brexit opportunities 00:21:59.140 --> 00:22:00.952 align:middle line:84% document, what was the number one item? 00:22:00.952 --> 00:22:02.410 align:middle line:84% That you were going to have a crown 00:22:02.410 --> 00:22:06.175 align:middle line:84% stamp back on your pint pot in the English pub. 00:22:06.175 --> 00:22:08.405 align:middle line:84% The Vote Leave side presented a very optimistic view 00:22:08.405 --> 00:22:10.780 align:middle line:84% of what the British economy would look like after Brexit, 00:22:10.780 --> 00:22:14.740 align:middle line:84% including a massive series of deregulation, Britain 00:22:14.740 --> 00:22:17.380 align:middle line:84% buccaneering around the world, striking trade deals 00:22:17.380 --> 00:22:18.135 align:middle line:90% around the world. 00:22:18.135 --> 00:22:19.510 align:middle line:84% There have been some trade deals, 00:22:19.510 --> 00:22:21.850 align:middle line:84% but they've mainly been with countries that Britain already 00:22:21.850 --> 00:22:23.980 align:middle line:84% had a trade deal with through the European Union. 00:22:23.980 --> 00:22:26.785 align:middle line:84% Australia really is the only one exception to that. 00:22:26.785 --> 00:22:29.710 align:middle line:84% Signing a free trade agreement with New Zealand or Australia 00:22:29.710 --> 00:22:32.080 align:middle line:84% has ups and downs of the UK economy, 00:22:32.080 --> 00:22:35.050 align:middle line:84% and is probably very, very marginally positive. 00:22:35.050 --> 00:22:38.200 align:middle line:84% But it's nothing like losing a free trade agreement 00:22:38.200 --> 00:22:40.870 align:middle line:84% and losing the frictionless trade you had with your biggest 00:22:40.870 --> 00:22:44.410 align:middle line:84% trading partner that's only 20 miles away across the channel. 00:22:44.410 --> 00:22:46.870 align:middle line:84% We lose 4 per cent of our GDP by Brexit. 00:22:46.870 --> 00:22:51.310 align:middle line:84% We gain 0.08 per cent by the government's own estimate 00:22:51.310 --> 00:22:53.305 align:middle line:84% through this trade deal with Australia. 00:22:53.305 --> 00:22:56.290 align:middle line:84% All the attempts to lay out exactly what a Brexit 00:22:56.290 --> 00:23:00.010 align:middle line:84% dividend looks like have thus far been totally unconvincing 00:23:00.010 --> 00:23:02.860 align:middle line:84% and that's on the trade agreement front, 00:23:02.860 --> 00:23:05.590 align:middle line:84% on the regulatory front, or the deregulatory front. 00:23:05.590 --> 00:23:08.920 align:middle line:84% The best case scenario is that a Brexit dividend 00:23:08.920 --> 00:23:10.840 align:middle line:84% is lots and lots of little changes 00:23:10.840 --> 00:23:13.480 align:middle line:84% that in aggregate add up to something meaningful. 00:23:13.480 --> 00:23:16.360 align:middle line:84% There's no sort of great idea that 00:23:16.360 --> 00:23:18.137 align:middle line:90% is out there at the moment. 00:23:18.137 --> 00:23:20.320 align:middle line:84% When the Brexiters said, oh, Brexit 00:23:20.320 --> 00:23:22.300 align:middle line:84% will unleash Britain's global potential, 00:23:22.300 --> 00:23:24.010 align:middle line:84% that made me very annoyed because we 00:23:24.010 --> 00:23:26.500 align:middle line:84% weren't sitting on our laurels just easily 00:23:26.500 --> 00:23:27.550 align:middle line:90% selling into France. 00:23:27.550 --> 00:23:28.900 align:middle line:90% Everyone was already doing that. 00:23:28.900 --> 00:23:31.570 align:middle line:84% We were already trading with the whole of the rest of the world. 00:23:31.570 --> 00:23:33.880 align:middle line:84% Making things more difficult for us to sell into the EU 00:23:33.880 --> 00:23:35.185 align:middle line:90% did not make anything easier. 00:23:37.097 --> 00:23:38.280 align:middle line:90% Boo. 00:23:38.280 --> 00:23:40.115 align:middle line:90% Brexit. 00:23:40.115 --> 00:23:44.870 align:middle line:84% We have heard Project Fear again and again, on and on it goes, 00:23:44.870 --> 00:23:47.390 align:middle line:84% but that all the aspects of Project Fear 00:23:47.390 --> 00:23:49.470 align:middle line:90% so far have been wrong. 00:23:49.470 --> 00:23:53.030 align:middle line:84% We were promised a punishment budget, that never happened. 00:23:53.030 --> 00:23:56.150 align:middle line:84% We were promised an increase of unemployment by 800,000 00:23:56.150 --> 00:23:58.977 align:middle line:84% by voting to leave, that did not happen. 00:23:58.977 --> 00:24:00.590 align:middle line:84% Remainers did themselves no service 00:24:00.590 --> 00:24:03.228 align:middle line:84% by claiming that immediately after a Brexit vote 00:24:03.228 --> 00:24:05.270 align:middle line:84% that Britain's economy would crash into recession 00:24:05.270 --> 00:24:07.062 align:middle line:84% and millions of people would be unemployed. 00:24:07.062 --> 00:24:08.812 align:middle line:84% I mean, that hasn't happened, and probably 00:24:08.812 --> 00:24:10.160 align:middle line:90% was never going to happen. 00:24:10.160 --> 00:24:14.450 align:middle line:84% The Project Fear tag was very effective 00:24:14.450 --> 00:24:17.720 align:middle line:84% from the Leave campaign and lasts to this day. 00:24:17.720 --> 00:24:21.230 align:middle line:84% I think the trouble is that Brexit is boring, and detailed, 00:24:21.230 --> 00:24:25.160 align:middle line:84% and wonky, it was hard to talk about that wonky detail 00:24:25.160 --> 00:24:28.520 align:middle line:84% around trading arrangements, and customs unions, 00:24:28.520 --> 00:24:31.565 align:middle line:84% and paperwork in a political campaign. 00:24:35.830 --> 00:24:38.530 align:middle line:84% Get Brexit Done, it was one of the most effective election 00:24:38.530 --> 00:24:39.850 align:middle line:90% slogans you've seen. 00:24:39.850 --> 00:24:44.200 align:middle line:84% We didn't even start to dig into those questions 00:24:44.200 --> 00:24:45.850 align:middle line:84% until after the vote was finished. 00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:51.120 align:middle line:84% The type of Brexit we decided to pursue 00:24:51.120 --> 00:24:53.880 align:middle line:84% was economically the most harmful. 00:24:53.880 --> 00:24:58.860 align:middle line:84% There was always a spectrum of economic impact versus ability 00:24:58.860 --> 00:25:02.640 align:middle line:84% to make our own choices around things like regulation. 00:25:02.640 --> 00:25:05.850 align:middle line:84% The European Union is not a superpower in the way 00:25:05.850 --> 00:25:07.600 align:middle line:84% that the United States is a superpower, 00:25:07.600 --> 00:25:10.830 align:middle line:84% but it is a regulatory and trading superpower. 00:25:10.830 --> 00:25:13.260 align:middle line:84% Collectively, it's the world's largest market 00:25:13.260 --> 00:25:17.910 align:middle line:84% and it harmonised all of its rules to allow everybody 00:25:17.910 --> 00:25:19.020 align:middle line:90% to trade more freely. 00:25:19.020 --> 00:25:21.870 align:middle line:84% And it forced other countries and trading 00:25:21.870 --> 00:25:24.390 align:middle line:84% blocs to follow EU rules in many ways. 00:25:24.390 --> 00:25:27.330 align:middle line:84% We can no longer blame European rule-makers 00:25:27.330 --> 00:25:31.020 align:middle line:84% for decisions and policies that we don't like or outcomes 00:25:31.020 --> 00:25:32.910 align:middle line:84% that we don't like in our own economy. 00:25:32.910 --> 00:25:35.190 align:middle line:84% With sovereignty comes a degree of ownership. 00:25:37.875 --> 00:25:40.230 align:middle line:84% I think we can conclude, one, that Brexit was 00:25:40.230 --> 00:25:42.060 align:middle line:90% an act of economic self-harm. 00:25:42.060 --> 00:25:45.570 align:middle line:84% Two, that the losers will be the nation as a whole, 00:25:45.570 --> 00:25:47.400 align:middle line:84% but also some of the poorest people, 00:25:47.400 --> 00:25:50.040 align:middle line:84% because ultimately, we are poorer as a nation. 00:25:50.040 --> 00:25:52.170 align:middle line:84% That hurts more vulnerable people more. 00:25:52.170 --> 00:25:54.960 align:middle line:84% Third, I think something from economics we can say 00:25:54.960 --> 00:25:58.350 align:middle line:84% is that we can't run referendums on very 00:25:58.350 --> 00:26:00.660 align:middle line:84% simple economic slogans, and it's 00:26:00.660 --> 00:26:04.875 align:middle line:84% dangerous to try and weaponise economics. 00:26:04.875 --> 00:26:06.420 align:middle line:90% Brexit is a slow puncture. 00:26:06.420 --> 00:26:07.530 align:middle line:90% It's not a car crash. 00:26:07.530 --> 00:26:10.290 align:middle line:84% So that doesn't mean that Brexit creates an unemployment 00:26:10.290 --> 00:26:12.630 align:middle line:84% crisis in the UK, but it may mean 00:26:12.630 --> 00:26:15.990 align:middle line:84% that over time, UK workers find themselves 00:26:15.990 --> 00:26:18.060 align:middle line:84% in less productive jobs and that makes 00:26:18.060 --> 00:26:20.970 align:middle line:84% the economy smaller than it otherwise would have been. 00:26:20.970 --> 00:26:24.300 align:middle line:84% It makes wages lower than they otherwise would have been. 00:26:24.300 --> 00:26:27.930 align:middle line:84% The slow puncture analogy has been right from 2016, 00:26:27.930 --> 00:26:31.140 align:middle line:84% but I think the "mini" Budget is that first sign 00:26:31.140 --> 00:26:34.050 align:middle line:84% that if we push things too far, not only are you going 00:26:34.050 --> 00:26:36.960 align:middle line:84% to begin to hear much more of an audible hiss, 00:26:36.960 --> 00:26:38.925 align:middle line:84% but you might even have a blowout. 00:26:38.925 --> 00:26:42.060 align:middle line:90% It's bordering on disastrous. 00:26:42.060 --> 00:26:45.510 align:middle line:84% I don't think there's any real public awareness of this. 00:26:45.510 --> 00:26:47.700 align:middle line:84% Even if we go and visit my mum for a weekend 00:26:47.700 --> 00:26:49.770 align:middle line:84% and talk to her about the difficulties we face, 00:26:49.770 --> 00:26:51.060 align:middle line:90% she'll go, oh, really? 00:26:51.060 --> 00:26:52.170 align:middle line:90% I thought we had a deal. 00:26:52.170 --> 00:26:54.480 align:middle line:84% Nothing's ever in the news about it. 00:26:54.480 --> 00:26:58.490 align:middle line:84% Nobody else seems to be voicing any concerns, apart from maybe 00:26:58.490 --> 00:26:59.115 align:middle line:90% you on Twitter. 00:27:02.490 --> 00:27:04.620 align:middle line:84% Brexit wasn't all about the economy. 00:27:04.620 --> 00:27:06.960 align:middle line:84% It was about stopping the free movement of people. 00:27:06.960 --> 00:27:09.840 align:middle line:84% It was about repatriating a sense of agency 00:27:09.840 --> 00:27:11.280 align:middle line:90% into the UK economy. 00:27:11.280 --> 00:27:13.620 align:middle line:84% The trouble was the Brexiteers and those 00:27:13.620 --> 00:27:17.010 align:middle line:84% who sold it were not honest about the trade-offs 00:27:17.010 --> 00:27:20.970 align:middle line:84% and the costs of that, which actually, economically, 00:27:20.970 --> 00:27:22.608 align:middle line:90% outweighed the benefits. 00:27:22.608 --> 00:27:24.150 align:middle line:84% It is legitimate to have a discussion 00:27:24.150 --> 00:27:26.975 align:middle line:84% about national sovereignty and taking back control. 00:27:26.975 --> 00:27:28.350 align:middle line:84% You could have had that argument, 00:27:28.350 --> 00:27:29.812 align:middle line:84% but you have to accept that there 00:27:29.812 --> 00:27:31.020 align:middle line:90% will be some economic impact. 00:27:31.020 --> 00:27:34.080 align:middle line:84% The trouble was Boris Johnson famously 00:27:34.080 --> 00:27:36.930 align:middle line:84% adopted a cakist approach, to have your cake and eat it. 00:27:36.930 --> 00:27:39.900 align:middle line:84% Cakism, or cherry-picking, as Michel Barnier used to call it, 00:27:39.900 --> 00:27:42.990 align:middle line:84% this idea that you could retain all the access you wanted 00:27:42.990 --> 00:27:45.330 align:middle line:84% to the EU single market and still be 00:27:45.330 --> 00:27:48.450 align:middle line:84% free to go off on what you might call your buccaneering Brexit. 00:27:48.450 --> 00:27:52.980 align:middle line:84% It was that Cakism that was slowly but surely exploded 00:27:52.980 --> 00:27:55.792 align:middle line:84% by the process of negotiating with the EU. 00:27:55.792 --> 00:27:58.020 align:middle line:84% And we're still paying the price of that, really, 00:27:58.020 --> 00:28:00.780 align:middle line:84% because people have never been prepared to accept or identify 00:28:00.780 --> 00:28:02.370 align:middle line:84% the trade-offs and then start talking 00:28:02.370 --> 00:28:04.820 align:middle line:90% about what you can do about it.